I think in some sense, it's already happening. As a 13 year old, I was debating on newsgroups, and winning map making tournaments, and teaching computer labs in college. The other parties just had no idea I was actually 13. But it's probably only a matter of time before 'the grand reveal' is a surprise for people any more.
Incidentally, Bill Gates used to have a traffic data analysis business, with Paul Allen, called "Traf-o-data". They were apparently humming along with $30,000 a year in sales, which continued, until they found out how old he was.
That wouldn't happen so much any more. Sure, kids are ignored. But not nearly so much.
This is fascinating. Do you think it will end up being a merit-based industry? Thirteen year-olds alongside seventy year-olds debating on newsgroups, but for academic credit and recognition?
A more interesting question (I think): Do you think there will ever be a point in the future at which the statement "A religion will be founded..." will be false? In other words, will we evolve away from religion, as a species?
I think self-identification as religion would be a definite indicator, though there are religions which don't self identify. I'd be willing to make the modified bet though.
How do you define what a religion is? A central dogma, recurring services of some type that can be inferred as 'praying' (maybe it'll be weekly Lisp programming sessions? - I kid, I kid), a power structure of religious elite, and a god to pay service to?
What is your list of requirements to be a religion for this prediction? As it stands, stating there will be a religion is hazy, and before I vote up/down I want to know what, exactly, is your prediction.
There's a possibility someone could surpass craigslist. With all of these gigantic social networks and big media companies I think someone could make a push for this market and win within the next 6 years.
Mumurs:
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/10/singularity-s-1.html
*False!* The 2nd generation MacBook air has a new Nvidia chipset and a new solid state drive option, but no 3g wireless!
I should mention that this is not only predictive, but aspirational.
I think it's a political and economic problem. I expect sustainability and disease and war and terraforming to occupy us until then.
Correct.
I think in some sense, it's already happening. As a 13 year old, I was debating on newsgroups, and winning map making tournaments, and teaching computer labs in college. The other parties just had no idea I was actually 13. But it's probably only a matter of time before 'the grand reveal' is a surprise for people any more.
Incidentally, Bill Gates used to have a traffic data analysis business, with Paul Allen, called "Traf-o-data". They were apparently humming along with $30,000 a year in sales, which continued, until they found out how old he was.
That wouldn't happen so much any more. Sure, kids are ignored. But not nearly so much.
Zero to the moon in 8 years. You don't think we can do Mars in 92 years? Or is the problem a political one?
I assume you mean that the net increase over that 100-year period will be greater than 1 degree. In that case, I agree.
This is fascinating. Do you think it will end up being a merit-based industry? Thirteen year-olds alongside seventy year-olds debating on newsgroups, but for academic credit and recognition?
A more interesting question (I think): Do you think there will ever be a point in the future at which the statement "A religion will be founded..." will be false? In other words, will we evolve away from religion, as a species?
I think self-identification as religion would be a definite indicator, though there are religions which don't self identify. I'd be willing to make the modified bet though.
How do you define what a religion is? A central dogma, recurring services of some type that can be inferred as 'praying' (maybe it'll be weekly Lisp programming sessions? - I kid, I kid), a power structure of religious elite, and a god to pay service to?
What is your list of requirements to be a religion for this prediction? As it stands, stating there will be a religion is hazy, and before I vote up/down I want to know what, exactly, is your prediction.
There's a possibility someone could surpass craigslist. With all of these gigantic social networks and big media companies I think someone could make a push for this market and win within the next 6 years.